A. Dmitriev1, A. Belov2,
R. Gorgutsa2, V. Ishkov2, V. Kozlov3,
V. Odintsov2, N. Pissarenko4, G. Popov5, E. Romashets2, M. Shevchenko4,
L. Tverskaya1, A. Zaitzev2
1Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics Moscow State University, Moscow
2Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation, Troitsk, Moscow Region
3Yakutian Institute Cosmophysics Investigations and Aeronomy, Yakutsk
4Space Research Institute, Moscow
5Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Irkutsk State Academy of Economics, Irkutsk
Russian space weather initiatives (RSWI) project displays the scientific activity in solar-terrestrial physics in Russia. One of the main aspects of RSWI is diagnostic and forecasting of the space weather phenomena from the Sun to the Earth's magnetosphere. In this sense on-line presentation of the observation results and forecasting models is in high demand. Web-site http://alpha.npi.msu.su/RSWI/rswi.html combines references on the different web-pages from more than 10 scientific centers in Russia. Experimental data include the cosmic ray variations, near Earth's radiation satellite data, solar radio emissions, Earth's magnetic field variations. Some data sets available in real time. The forecasting models can be used to infer long-time and short-time prediction of the solar and geomagnetic activity. The present paper is the short overview of the information accessible on the RSWI Web-site.
Russian space weather initiatives (RSWI) began its operation one year ago . RSWI cover a many topics from the solar activity via interplanetary conditions to the magnetosphere and near Earth's radiation dynamics. Many scientific groups in Russia search different features of the space weather during two past decades. The wide network of ground based stations performs the measurements of the Earth's magnetic field (magnetometers), solar radio emissions (radio- telescopes) and cosmic ray fluxes (neutron monitors). The complex program of near Earth satellite experiments permits to obtain in-situ information about magnetosphere and radiation environment, plasma characteristics, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This information is ultimately important for diagnostics of the interplanetary medium and Earth's magnetosphere conditions. Many theoretical and empirical models developed by Russian scientists are used for description and prediction of different types of phenomena in the solar-terrestrial connection. These resources are combined on the RSWI web-site http://alpha.npi.msu.su/RSWI/rswi.html as the list of the links which reflect the main directions of the space weather diagnostics and forecasting: the Sun, solar corona, heliosphere, magnetosphere, near Earth's radiation and space weather prediction.
Several groups took part in the SCOSTEP S-RAMP Space Weather Month Campaign, September 1999. Experimental data and models are collected on-line at www-page http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~dalex/events/iswmc/sept99.htm. Such data set demonstrates the possibility of different Russian groups for fast on-line presentation of their scientific results in Internet. The paper is devoted to describe the resources located in the RSWI web-site and associated with space weather diagnostics and forecasting.
2. Space weather diagnostics
The diagnostics of the space weather is based on the on-line information both from active experiments presented in the real time and from the experimental data bases. Comparison analysis of the current observations with previous ones permits to classify the observing space weather event and estimate its possible influence on the Earth's magnetosphere and near Earth radiation. This is one of main problems of the space weather at present time.
Observation of the Sun. IZMIRAN Solar Radio Laboratory (LaRS) supports the solar radio patrol by means of 169 MHz, 204 MHz, 3000 MHz radiometers and 45 - 270 MHZ digital spectrograph (http://helios.izmiran.troitsk.ru/lars/LARS.html). Irkutsk Radioastrophysical Observatory (ISTP SD RAS) presents on-line information about optical and radio observations of the Sun (ftp://ssrt.iszf.irk.ru/pub/data) and bursts of solar emission at 5.7GHz (http://rao.iszf.irk.ru/bursts/stat.html).
Heliospheric cosmic ray observations are presented by the net of several Russian neutron monitors: in Moscow (IZMIRAN http://helios.izmiran.rssi.ru/cosray/main.htm), highest time resolution (10s) monitor in Apatity (PGI http://pgi.kolasc.net.ru/CosmicRay/), Yakutsk and Tixie (IKFIA http://teor.ysn.ru/rswi/graph-GIF.html). Experimental data about cosmic ray variations are loaded in the data bases presented on-line on Web-pages http://helios.izmiran.rssi.ru/cosray/main.htm (Moscow), http://pgi.kolasc.net.ru/CosmicRay/form.htm (Apatity) and http://teor.ysn.ru/imf/neutron.htm (Yakutsk and Tixie Bay). Monitoring of GCR variations and scintillation is used for short time (days) prediction of IMF disturbance [2,3] (http://teor.ysn.ru/rswi/graph-GIF.html). For quantitative description of GCR variations hourly index of cosmic ray activity "CR Activity Index" has been introduced [4,5]. The simplified version of this index is presented in real time (http://helios.izmiran.rssi.ru/cosray/indices.htm). This index is developed directly for the purposes of diagnostic and forecasting of interplanetary perturbations and consequent geomagnetic dynamics.
Earth's magnetic field variations data are coming in real time from Moscow (IZMIIRAN http://helios.izmiran.troitsk.ru/cosray/magnet.htm) and Irkutsk (ISTP http://cgm.iszf.irk.ru/magnet2.htm). The data bases of the geomagnetic variations are presented on the web-pages http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/magnetism/mos_data.htm, ftp://vodin.izmiran.rssi.ru/start.htm (IZMIRAN), http://pgi.kolasc.net.ru/Lovozero/ (PGI), http://cgm.iszf.irk.ru/outmag/ (ISTP). The data from the net of Russian geomagnetic observatories are combined on CD-ROM data base on ftp-server ftp://vodin.izmiran.rssi.ru/start.htm. The indexes of the geomagnetic activity are calculated and presented on-line on http://cgm.iszf.irk.ru/magnet2.htm, http://charlamp.izmiran.rssi.ru/ (local 3 hour K-indexes in Irkutsk and Moscow respectively) and on http://www.aari.nw.ru/clgmi/geophys/pc_Data_Intermagnet.html (1 min Ap index). These indexes permit to estimate current geomagnetic activity at the middle and high geomagnetic latitudes.
Near Earth's radiation is observed in the space experiments on satellites. RSWI web-site reflects two main on-line data bases of Russian space experiments. IKI Data Archive (http://www.iki.rssi.ru/da.html) contains information from space experiments Prognoz-7, Prognoz-8, Prognoz-9, Prognoz-10, Arcad, Active, Apex, Gamma and Interball. The experimental information includes the data about fluxes of energetic charged particles, x-rays, gamma-rays, plasma properties and magnetic field in the Earth's magnetosphere and in the near Earth's interplanetary medium. Low altitude space radiation environment data base (LASRE) by SINP MSU (http://dec1.npi.msu.su/english/data/lasre/index.html) contains the information about energetic electrons (E>40 keV) and protons (E>0.5 MeV) observed on the near Earth's satellites Intercosmos-19, Cosmos-1686, CORONAS-I and MIR station at altitudes less than 1000 km during the period from 1979 to present. Therefore the LASRE data base permits to study near Earth radiation dynamics during at least two solar cycles. The real time data about penetrated radiation and gamma-radiation observed in the "Riabina" experiment permanently operated since autumn of 1990 onboard MIR station is available on web-page http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~rtmir/.
3. Nowcasting and forecasting models.
RSWI web-site supports references on both long-term and short term forecasting of the space weather events. Long term forecasting (months - years) is based on the empirical models of averaged values of different physical parameter depending on the solar activity. Short term forecasting (hours - days) is produced by means of dynamical empirical model applications to the current situation determined from the diagnostic of the space weather conditions.
The long-time forecasting models of the solar activity and heliospheric dynamics have been developed on the base of the artificial neural network (ANN) technique in SINP MSU (http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~dalex/events/iswmc/sept99.htm). The solar activity model permits to predict monthly dynamics of yearly means sunspot number (W) and solar radio flux (F10.7) during the current XXIII solar cycle (up to 2005). The ANN model shows that current cycle will be similar to XX solar cycle with maximum in the autumn-winter 1999 and peak mean value W~110. Next solar minimum is supposed between 2006-2008.
The long-time forecasting of monthly means solar wind plasma velocity and density and interplanetary magnetic field for period from October 1999 to June 2000 confirms the conclusion about similarity of the XX and XXIII solar cycles.
The model of near Earth's radiation has to describe the dynamics of three main kinds of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar cosmic rays (SCR) and trapped radiation. The SINP MSU dynamical model of the GCR is accessible on web-page http://www.npi.msu.su/gcrf/form.html. The GCR model permits to calculate differential flux of different nuclear types (from H to U) for definite parameters of the near Earth's space mission orbit (Inclination, Perigee, Apogee, Right Ascension of perigee) as a function of solar activity (W) and geomagnetic conditions (Kp-index). Probabilistic model of SCR (SINP MSU http://www.npi.msu.su/scrf/form.html) allows prescribe the size of the solar particles fluences and peak fluxes that are expected within a given probability, to be exceeded at a given solar activity level within a given time interval. The improved radiation model based on information system SEREIS (http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~vfb/SEREIS/) is able to describe smoothed variations of energetic particles in the magnetosphere associated with local time, seasonal and solar cycle variations.
Short-time forecasting of the large solar flare and solar geo-effective events (large flare, filament ejection and coronal holes) impacting on the geomagnetic and radiation condition have been developed by V. Ishkov (IZMIRAN http:\\izmiran.rssi.ru\space\solar\forecast.html) and weekly updated. Short-term large flare event forecasting is presently based on observation by the process of new magnetic flux emergencies, its evolution: the magnitude and rate of emergence, its localization and interaction with already existing magnetic fields of the active region or outside of it. Taking into account physical and geometrical parameters of the own flare and the flare active region makes possible to predict the space weather: parameters of the solar proton events, the characteristics of geomagnetic activity and other. The method has been put to successful test on Russian scientific satellites such as GRANAT, GAMMA, CORONAS-I. Computer version this forecast techniques has been developed on the base of real-time solar data [6,7].
The IMF sector structure is continuously restored in the form of the map of the source surface according to original programs of A.Kharshiladze , see page www.izmiran.rssi.ru/~romashets/. The model uses current on-line experimental information about solar and interplanetary magnetic field measurements. IMF sector structure (especially sector boundary location) is extremely important for description of a structure of the heliospheric current sheet and coronal holes (associated with formation of the geoeffective corotation interaction region) and for estimation of the SCR and GCR propagation conditions.
3D model of the Earth dayside magnetopause is accessible on-line on web-page http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~alla/mmp3d/. The model permits to calculate 3D shape and size of the dayside magnetosphere boundary in dependence on the solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF By and Bz components . The short-term prediction of the lowest L-shell position of maximum of storm- injected relativistic electrons of outer radiation belt (Lmax) in dependence on the maximal Dst-variation of the storm (|Dst|max) is defined by a model of Tverskaya : |Dst|max=2.75*104/L4max ( http://dec1.npi.msu.su/~dalex/events/iswmc/tver.htm). The dependence permits also to predict extreme storm-time location of some very important magnetospheric plasma domains such as extreme latitude of west electrojet center during a storm, boundary of discrete auroral forms, trapped radiation boundary and intensity maximum of symmetrised storm-time ring current .
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